It turns out the highly anticipated, world-ending global energy apocalypse has been canceled. On Thursday, June 25, 2026, Brent crude prices absolutely cratered to a low of $72.24 a barrel—officially sliding below the price tag we saw before the U.S. and Israel decided to drop a missile package on Tehran back on February 28. With oil prices down over 20% this month alone, the doomer narratives of a permanent energy crunch are officially in shambles.

The big story here is the absolute traffic jam in the Strait of Hormuz. Commercial vessel traffic through the strait literally doubled in 24 hours, hitting its highest level since late February. In a massive flex against regional bullies, tankers are now casually sailing through the strait with their satellite tracking signals switched on. For months, these ships had to go "dark" like low-key pirates to avoid being target practice. Now, they're broadcasting their locations loud and proud.

Even better, a Liberian tanker just made its exit out of the strait on Thursday using a fresh route right along Oman's coast. The UN's maritime bureaucrats cooked up this route to bypass the hot zones, and the shipping industry is using it despite a bunch of angry, empty threats from Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guards. It seems the Guards are getting ignored, and the shipping lanes are wide open.

Naturally, the market is currently in a state of beautiful oversupply. Brent for August delivery is trading cheaper than September's contracts ($73.59), which is market-speak for "we have way too much oil right now." Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya pointed out that this glut is a beautiful mix of strategic inventory dumps by panicking governments, a massive industrial demand collapse from China (turns out their economic engine is sputtering), and a fleet of "dark" tankers finally dumping their hoarded crude into key markets. Swissquote is calling for oil to bounce around between $60 and $80 in the coming week. Coping and seething from the oil bulls is highly expected.

On the diplomatic front, we’ve got a classic piece of paper theater. The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding last week, buying a 60-day ceasefire window to negotiate a "permanent peace deal." But because this is the real world and not a diplomatic seminar, the deal is already on life support. Israel just conducted a precision airstrike in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, neutralizing two targets. It was the first strike since a ceasefire started on Saturday, proving once again that these international agreements aren't worth the PDF they’re written on.