It looks like the Kremlin is reaching peak desperation. After getting absolutely hammered by a Ukrainian drone offensive that saw nearly 200 drones raining down on Moscow and St. Petersburg, Russia is reportedly looking to start some side-quests. Intelligence sources from two eastern-flank NATO countries are warning that Vladimir Putin is planning some "provocations" in the Baltic states or Poland. The goal? Run a quick vibe check on NATO to see if the West actually has the stomach to defend its smallest members.

On Monday, Latvian intelligence dropped the news: "We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland." Now, before everyone starts screaming about World War III, the intel suggests this won't be a full-scale invasion. Russia’s army is currently too bogged down in Ukraine to open a second front. Instead, we are looking at "hybrid attacks"—think random missiles, decoy drones, or weird sabotage operations designed to send a simple message: "Stop helping Ukraine, or we'll make your life annoying."

A senior political source from another NATO ally confirmed the chatter, stating they've picked up intelligence that Putin is looking to "throw the dice." The plan seems to be testing whether the U.S. actually cares about Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, or if Washington is just bluffing. With the Russian invasion in Ukraine completely stalled out, the Kremlin is looking for literally any way to break the deadlock and disrupt the current trend. As Russia expert Keir Giles from Chatham House put it, "We should not expect Russia to passively lose." In other words: expect maximum cope and horizontal escalation.

Meanwhile, the absolute comedy show on the border continues. Russia’s relative weakness was on full display this week in Belarus. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave Belarus a one-week warning to shut down the Russian drone relay stations on their territory, or else Ukraine would blow them up. Right on cue, the Belarusian authorities in Brest and Gomel suddenly ordered mobile operators to tear down the equipment. Their excuse? The military hardware was apparently "interfering with grouse nesting sites." You honestly cannot make this stuff up. Peak tactical retreat disguised as avian conservation.

This all comes at a highly awkward time for the NATO alliance, which is heading to its annual summit in Ankara, Turkey. There’s already plenty of drama behind the scenes regarding how committed the U.S. actually is to defending Europe. Just this Wednesday, Donald Trump complained that he felt "let down" by European allies who refused to let the U.S. Air Force use their airfields to bomb Iran. If NATO allies won't even help with Iran, Putin might think they won't lift a finger for Latvia.